Hedge Clippings | Friday 12 April, 2019

All eyes on the Federal Election. It's the economy, stupid!

I think we said at the start of the year, and maybe well back into last year as well, that in 2019 markets would be significantly dominated by geo-political issues. That's certainly been the case globally (Trump/China Trade Wars, and now Trump/EU, plus the extension of Brexit - all of which are going to dominate the global outlook for a good while yet), but now the Federal election has finally been called it is going to focus - or obscure - the local outlook.

Why this should suddenly focus investors' minds and attention is somewhat baffling. It has always been known roughly when it would be held, even if the exact date was not declared until this week. However, from the perspective of investors and fund managers it will require a decision: Will the outcome have any real impact on the local market and how fund managers manage their investors' money post May 18?

We would suggest it will, to varying degrees;
 

1. Business confidence is one, partly due to the potential for a wages push on a change of government. Consumer confidence is another, especially where it matters with those consumers with discretionary spending ability, along with taxation policy.

2. A change in government will hardly improve the current property slump given potential changes to negative gearing, perceived or otherwise, and remembering that property prices affect consumer confidence to a significant degree. Further falls will certainly improve housing affordability, but that only affects the relatively small proportion of buyers trying to enter the market, not the majority who are already in it.

3. Meanwhile, for those who have only recently purchased homes and/or are mortgaged to the hilt, they'll potentially see their equity evaporate. In addition, as they switch from honeymoon rates, or from interest-only to P&I, they'll be faced with increased repayments leading to further pressure on discretionary spending - and subsequently on both business and consumer confidence.

4. Ditto self-funded retirees, potentially hit by changes to the treatment of franking credits. Whilst they're not all the highest of discretionary spenders, the overall effect of the removal of franking credits will take its toll on the economy.

The only way to increase consumer spending will be increased wages, but refer back a few paragraphs to item #1 - business confidence - and we start to get into a circular argument…

We've previously said there's unlikely to be a further rate cut in Australia this year, but the RBA may have no alternative - and as we've also previously said, if the RBA needs to cut rates further from here, it will indicate there's a real problem with the economy.

For those who want to follow what the RBA's current thinking, today's release of their Financial Stability Review should provide a good place to start. You can find a link to the whole document here if you have the time and inclination, or use the following links to focus on Household and Business Finances and Housing Price Falls and Negative Equity.