With only three more sleeps to go, Hedge Clippings can almost hear Santa's sleigh as 2017 draws to a close. Looking back over the year it was one of persistent and declining low volatility from an equity market perspective as low interest rates, low inflation, low wages growth, and steadily improving employment numbers underwrote business conditions and confidence, and thus market returns.

Conversely, Australian consumer confidence failed to follow suit. Low interest rates continued to fuel a surging real estate market - some would call it a boom - and massive household debt, but with no to low wages growth. As a result consumers aren't sharing the joy.

In spite of dire predictions from some quarters at the beginning of the year that investors would have to accept mid to low single digit returns in this environment it looks as if that may not be the case. To the end of November the ASX200 Accumulation Index has risen 9.81%, although less than half that of the S&P500's total return of 20.49%. Volatility, as measured by the VIX in Chicago spent most the past 6 months below 10, with a 52 week low of just 8.56. Not even three tightening's from the US FED, tensions on the Korean peninsula, or chaos in the Canberra sandpit managed to disrupt the market's party.

So where to from here in 2018? It seems dangerous to say it, let alone go to print, but probably more of the same. Improving business conditions in the USA will enable the FED's gradual tightening policy to continue. In Australia low inflation, low wages growth will see rates on hold probably until at least the 4^th quarter. In that environment, all things being equal, markets should remain stable, or at least continue their current course.

The danger is that all things rarely remain equal. While it is difficult to predict what might occur to upset the apple cart, the risk remains. Our best guess is something political, be it global or local. So while the weight of inflows remains firmly in the passive funds sector, so does the risk.

And why not? Active equity funds in AFM's database have outperformed the ASX200 YTD to November, returning 11.59% compared to the market's 9.81%. Of those almost 20% have doubled the return of the ASX200. Most importantly, with a couple of exceptions, they have done so with lower volatility than that of the market, even in the current "low vol" environment.

Do Lowy and Murdoch know more than the rest of us? Undoubtedly!

Last week Hedge Clippings discussed the potential for the $8 billion in bank dividends due in December being fed back to the market as a driver of a Santa Rally, although given the current negative publicity banks are receiving, it might not all necessarily find its way back in to bank stocks themselves.  This week came news which might herald a similar injection (or more) from Westfield shareholders, although a fair proportion of that might be re-allocated to the property sector.

Not content with the Lowy's taking a profit after over 50 years getting to, and at the top of their game, Rupert Murdoch's announcement overnight signifies there could be a move by two of Australia's most successful businessmen that there's something afoot.  Could this be the start of the smartest money in town taking a "little" off the table while asset prices are high, and the market is still buoyant, or is it just a co-incidence?

Hedge Clippings suggests possibly a little bit of each, along with a number of other reasons. Apart from both being incredibly successful on the global stage, neither are getting any younger, although there's no suggestion Murdoch is stepping back from the fray. Both have built and are/were at the helm of businesses which having benefitted from massive change over their tenure, are facing even greater pressure from a change in technology going forward. With nothing left to prove, why not cash in some chips while there are willing buyers?

In Lowy's case he also referenced the increasing burden of reporting and compliance in an increasingly regulated world which, while it might be necessary, has become such a feature of the corporate, and particularly listed corporate, world. Anecdotal evidence suggests that in many cases the risk and compliance role of a director of a listed company, particularly in financial services or any other heavily regulated sector, outweighs time and focus on strategy and direction. Given the CBA's current woes this may seem implausible, but that doesn't allow for incompetence.

For those readers in private financial services businesses we suspect the emphasis on the compliance and reporting requirements are also an equal or increasing burden, with few technological solutions to the problem. In fact advancing technology may simply be increasing the compliance burden.

Meanwhile, the US FED raised rates 0.25% as expected, even if the vote was not unanimous, and with expectations of three more to come in 2018, the markets were unsurprised.   Well that depends if it was the equity market - happy that the economic signals continue to gather momentum without undue inflation - or the bond market, unhappy as yields rise.  The question is when does the switch in asset allocation out of equities start?  Probably not for a while yet, but the tipping point will come at some point.

Labour markets and employment are strong both at home and the USA, but not so wages growth. That tipping point will no doubt change when labour markets go from being strong to tight, a scenario which will be delayed somewhat by advancing technology, but which the corporate world will not be looking forward to.

ARCO ABSOLUTE TRUST (formerly Optimal Australia Absolute Trust)

AFM have released the most recently updated Fund Review on the ARCO Absolute Trust.

We would like to highlight the following aspects of the Fund;

• ARCO Investment Management is a specialist Australian equity investment manager and the Fund has a long/short equity strategy typically with a low but variable net market exposure comprising 40 to 65 stocks broadly selected from within the ASX200. 

• The investment team comprising George Colman, Peter Whiting, and Stephen Nicholls bring 100 years combined experience in equity markets.

• The Fund has an annualised return since inception of +8.41%. The Fund's approach to risk is shown by the Sharpe ratio of 1.39 (Index 0.30), Sortino ratio of 2.95 (Index 0.32), both of which are well above the ASX 200 Accumulation Index and has recorded over 79% positive months.

For further details on the Fund, please do not hesitate to contact us.

Australian Fund Monitors

ATTACHED FILESAFM Fund Review - November 2017 (pdf format)